NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207b495f40ed8947beb83869e75667699f477c1aa3fc9a413e41ae1819b1771c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Hawks, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Thunder | 73c | 14,145$10,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,874.31 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Hawks | 21c | 8,695$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.29 | 259 | 39%101 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed Hawks | 40c | 8,338$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Thunder | 76c | 8,092$6,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.42 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks | 20c | 7,500$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.98 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Thunder | 72c | 5,222$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.79 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder | 79c | 2,791$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Hawks | 20c | 1,557$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.76 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…fb79backed Thunder | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Thunder | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Hawks | 12c | 1,090$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Hawks | 28c | 1,072$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hawks | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Hawks | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Thunder | 80c | 796.75$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Hawks | 26c | 789.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks | 20c | 728.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Hawks | 21c | 665.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…df4cbacked Hawks | 28c | 612.07$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…7b2bbacked Hawks | 16c | 600$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Thunder | 72c | 592.07$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Hawks | 19c | 510.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Thunder | 66c | 325.22$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd3…3c5abacked Hawks | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…0915backed Hawks | 7c | 242.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Hawks | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Thunder | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Hawks | 19c | 199.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed Hawks | 23c | 191.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…1fafbacked Hawks | 21c | 187.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…dab5backed Hawks | 24c | 143.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…0416backed Hawks | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…dbc7backed Hawks | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…e373backed Hawks | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Thunder | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Hawks | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 930 | 41.9%390 W · 540 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…be81backed Hawks | 27c | 94.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…5e80backed Thunder | 79c | 87.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…ffd4backed Hawks | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Thunder | 78c | 70.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…5365backed Hawks | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Hawks | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Hawks | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe819…24f8backed Thunder | 80c | 53.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Hawks | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Thunder | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Thunder | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e1a8backed Hawks | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…5576backed Thunder | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +85%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Thunder | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…f3edbacked Thunder | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…b86bbacked Thunder | 79c | 33.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f96…7a8abacked Thunder | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Thunder | 79c | 26.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 244 | 62.3%152 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…b999backed Thunder | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…855ebacked Thunder | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…02e7backed Thunder | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…e510backed Thunder | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6c…b425backed Thunder | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073c…68a5backed Thunder | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Thunder | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…1becbacked Thunder | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…1ba8backed Thunder | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…e549backed Thunder | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…7367backed Thunder | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307c…828dbacked Thunder | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.