Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Marin Cilic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20bc088e32930c925a8c6930cfb0e841ebf08a0c1d7b7a196fca4cc21612da8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cilicof Kjaer, Cilic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kjaer | 0c | 9,599$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cilic | 54c | 2,208$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.71 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Kjaer | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Cilic | 52c | 1,837$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cilic | 66c | 1,586$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.55 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kjaer | 50c | 804$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.88 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cilic | 48c | 800$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Kjaer | 52c | 790$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.8 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Cilic | 56c | 770$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.5 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kjaer | 52c | 680$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.09 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cilic | 47c | 473.36$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kjaer | 43c | 381.91$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Kjaer | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kjaer | 49c | 365$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cilic | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Kjaer | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cilic | 64c | 257.53$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Kjaer | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 33.6%50 W · 99 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Kjaer | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Kjaer | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…7415backed Cilic | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cilic | 50c | 199.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cilic | 52c | 195.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Cilic | 57c | 175.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cilic | 46c | 167.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Cilic | 48c | 124.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kjaer | 51c | 120.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kjaer | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Cilic | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Kjaer | 51c | 77.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Cilic | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cilic | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Cilic | 47c | 45.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Kjaer | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…3045backed Cilic | 75c | 41.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cilic | 47c | 40.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Kjaer | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Kjaer | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kjaer | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.