Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d93a9b68d8dc512873a83b4f0971c9bdcc871c57692d16654a0f0c38af8558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 564.22$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 25c | 455$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 414.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 322.75$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 44c | 261$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 69c | 246.37$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 237.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 42c | 216.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 213.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 174.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 70c | 149.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 25c | 143.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 139.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 69c | 120.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 120.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 56c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 102.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 100.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 27c | 92.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 79.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 72c | 78.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 74.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 73.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 70.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 70.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…7192backed No | 76c | 52.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 50.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 25c | 50.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 28c | 43.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 41.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 35.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 57c | 28.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 26.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 70c | 21.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 16.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 16.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.