Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f6310631e5b7f9164e65aad57c2e2b5e0e64cea8638444ecf546fd25198e03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 598.41$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 462.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 239.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 231.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 180.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 178.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 173.21$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 64c | 164.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 152.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 147$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 146.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 32c | 142.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 23c | 135.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 121.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 68c | 119.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 37c | 113.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 102.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 100.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…6ca6backed Yes | 29c | 95.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 68c | 90.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 78.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 69.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 59.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 53.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 50.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 49.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 34c | 46.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 44.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 43.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 42.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 66c | 41.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 37.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 33.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 30.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 34c | 29.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 28.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fe…c30abacked Yes | 37c | 27.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 26.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 71c | 23.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.