Mls · resolved market
MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x210093665e2dfe30f61942b2263e1d93c83ca7c9ee8b39dcdba842ab51f5a3e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Under | 46c | 9,315$4,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,241.82 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 54c | 5,778$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,657.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 40c | 2,291$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.3 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 1,577$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.04 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 54c | 1,374$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.52 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 55c | 1,070$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.54 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Over | 55c | 909.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 46c | 774.3$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.07 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked Over | 55c | 555$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb1…e05ebacked Over | 55c | 514.61$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 55c | 486.37$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.87 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 36c | 314.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 64c | 222.3$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2f…06bebacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb109…d40fbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 47c | 153.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…3d6fbacked Over | 55c | 152$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Over | 55c | 123.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 107.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 55c | 86.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 60.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…13a8backed Over | 55c | 56.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 46c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 29.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 4.5this page
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 0.5Over won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 1.5Over won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 2.5Over won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 3.5Over won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 5.5Over won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 7.5Under won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: O/U 8.5Under won
- MLS All-Stars vs. Liga MX All-Stars: Team to WinMLS All-Stars won
- Spread: MLS All-Stars (-1.5)Liga MX All-Stars won
- Spread: MLS All-Stars (-2.5)Liga MX All-Stars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.