Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21251c1b89eb78a0d3448be05882722af461088dbcdfa0ff144815584eddce70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 36c | 440.91$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.04 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 205.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 198.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 50c | 164.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 138.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 137.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 58c | 137.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 56c | 131.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 119.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 46c | 112$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 108.84$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 101$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 24c | 84.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 73.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 73c | 66.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 30c | 66.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 65.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 26c | 65.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 63.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 31c | 62.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…74b9backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 59.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 57.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…1171backed Yes | 67c | 54.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 41c | 50.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 38.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 71c | 38.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 37.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 52c | 37.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 35.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 26.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 71c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…168dbacked Yes | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 17.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…9fcfbacked No | 74c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 76c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 14.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.