NBA · resolved market
Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21491fa75f2caf6a72533794871b0e668f71a994636348ac77be4ead8064e9bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 0c | 39,082$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 4c | 3,000$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…960cbacked No | 3c | 2,300$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +421.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…c092backed No | 5c | 2,200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.35per pick | 11cpaid | +378%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed No | 3c | 2,100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +428%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…8936backed No | 3c | 1,560$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…a4fcbacked No | 14c | 1,300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…f400backed No | 2c | 1,127$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +751.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…0d61backed No | 23c | 800$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…c148backed No | 4c | 450$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 19c | 185.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 28c | 42.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5this page
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Jarace Walker: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jay Huff: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Pacers vs. WizardsWizards won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Wizards won
- Tre Johnson: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.