TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d10…e270backed Under50c19,000$9,495 inLost-$9,494.85139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c6,646$3,346 inWon+$3,299.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Over52c6,503$3,381 inWon+$3,121.38041.3%33 W · 47 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under49c4,855$2,379 inLost-$2,37949246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c4,216$2,129 inWon+$2,086.572,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over51c2,596$1,324 inWon+$1,272.212,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c1,449$755 inWon+$694.24,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c1,333$667 inWon+$666.523,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over52c677.38$352 inWon+$325.141,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c451.61$206 inLost-$205.854,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over56c446.43$250 inWon+$196.4352951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over51c400.03$202 inWon+$198.023,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacce…ce8abacked Under55c269.28$147 inLost-$146.884753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under45c261.71$118 inLost-$117.543,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under6c241.46$15 inLost-$14.681,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under49c202.02$100 inLost-$99.9838946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under36c193.82$69 inLost-$69.243,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c145.31$73 inWon+$72.662,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under48c104.16$50 inLost-$502,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over52c100$52 inWon+$4833949.9%169 W · 170 L-1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc1…36bbbacked Over53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.347848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over51c92.1$47 inWon+$45.134,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under57c87.72$50 inLost-$49.665872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over70c64.13$45 inWon+$191,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under32c63.67$20 inLost-$20.238,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Over56c58.93$33 inWon+$25.9349358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under25c50$13 inLost-$12.523,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Over53c48.98$26 inWon+$23.021,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under41c40$16 inLost-$16.490357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over51c38.77$20 inWon+$1991148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under43c38$16 inLost-$16.3466646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Under47c31.91$15 inLost-$1517444.3%77 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under45c29$13 inLost-$13.0539055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49cb…dd4dbacked Over52c23.08$12 inWon+$11.081566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f3…12ffbacked Under50c21.84$11 inLost-$10.924759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Over73c21$15 inWon+$5.679450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under58c21$12 inLost-$12.081,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$1021553.5%115 W · 100 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.