NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pacers (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa453ecd9ce36fae0d93e62036b9ed4234f1585b576f18ef1a1bb5e79f20bcab6

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Wizardsof Pacers, Wizards
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,188 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards	58c	11,967$6,978 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,988.91	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Pacers	46c	10,771$4,955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,954.58	296	50.3%149 W · 147 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers	46c	8,402$3,863 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,863.2	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Wizards	51c	7,716$3,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,780.47	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards	51c	5,976$3,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,903.57	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers	49c	5,256$2,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,552.91	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	32c	2,779$895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$895.01	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Wizards	52c	2,500$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	1,759	61.7%1,085 W · 674 L	+127.5wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a70…f85fbacked Pacers	49c	1,862$912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$912.38	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aef…32cfbacked Wizards	54c	1,503$812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.38	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505d…6c61backed Pacers	46c	1,495$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.7	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards	52c	1,155$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.87	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Wizards	53c	1,150$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.5	151	54.3%82 W · 69 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards	54c	1,147$619 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.65	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pacers	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards	51c	772.81$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.22	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards	54c	633$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.18	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards	49c	620.59$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.88	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Pacers	51c	463.84$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.02	513	54.2%278 W · 235 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Pacers	38c	381.99$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.86	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers	52c	304.92$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.31	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e7c…d12fbacked Pacers	46c	295.65$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers	48c	228$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.44	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Pacers	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	285	54.7%156 W · 129 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Pacers	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Wizards	56c	220$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.8	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Pacers	48c	204.08$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.96	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Wizards	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Pacers	48c	193.63$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.98	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers	48c	181.75$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.21	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Pacers	46c	160.47$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.84	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Wizards	53c	144.84$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.79	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Pacers	49c	139$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.11	179	60.9%109 W · 70 L	+17.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Wizards	53c	132.28$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.32	260	34.6%90 W · 170 L	-20.6wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards	43c	132.08$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.83	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Pacers	48c	124.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.73	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards	50c	114.91$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.81	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Wizards	56c	110$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.4	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Pacers	51c	106.04$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.28	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…2e45backed Wizards	50c	102.06$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.57	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Wizards	51c	88.82$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.82	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Pacers	51c	86.04$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.88	232	49.6%115 W · 117 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Wizards	42c	85.93$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.84	189	57.1%108 W · 81 L	+12.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Wizards	55c	77.85$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Pacers	46c	76.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Wizards	36c	71.61$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.5	1,170	50.3%588 W · 582 L	+46.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Wizards	54c	49$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.79	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Wizards	56c	39.29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Wizards	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc101…98edbacked Wizards	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	63cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Wizards	48c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Pacers	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	323	46.4%150 W · 173 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ae…305dbacked Wizards	52c	27.69$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+105.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Wizards	52c	23.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	920	58%534 W · 386 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Wizards	49c	22.79$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.62	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Wizards	55c	21.25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.56	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Wizards	54c	20.37$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.37	293	48.5%142 W · 151 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Pacers	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pacers (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event