NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4221c6f1d92872589d0539191eb335bc11551b976485e327c03576cae50e27f9

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a32…0086backed Over	50c	11,165$5,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,582.58	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	10,722$5,327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,326.88	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	52c	4,294$2,233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,060.91	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,040.23	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over	53c	2,604$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,223.77	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under	48c	1,500$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff1…49cebacked Under	48c	1,252$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$601	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Under	51c	1,021$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.71	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	49c	924.74$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.1	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	51c	881.43$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.72	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	50c	633.5$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.75	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	54%188 W · 160 L	+15.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	50c	399.89$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.95	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…05d8backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	53cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	18c	182.14$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	48c	122.24$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.68	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	175	45.7%80 W · 95 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Over	49c	99.99$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	86	51.2%44 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b61…78e8backed Over	13c	85.2$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.12	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+54.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	65c	76.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Over	35c	76.92$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	146	36.3%53 W · 93 L	+16.4wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Under	49c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	53c	58.13$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.32	181	50.3%91 W · 90 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked Under	49c	34.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event