NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027e028463cb4b730e92bb1a8807e84a9ba1c30bfcae85d34f8e04bd47fe0a7c

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,424 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	53c	390.74$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.86	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	57c	366.83$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.32	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Over	43c	223.09$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.16	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	44c	199.93$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.08	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Over	42c	114.2$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.24	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+29.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc101…98edbacked Under	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	63cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	58c	86.2$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	47c	68.6$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.36	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Over	47c	36.77$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.49	293	51.9%152 W · 141 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Under	54c	35.19$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over	47c	31.96$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.94	190	51.6%98 W · 92 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over	43c	29.16$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.65	390	47.7%186 W · 204 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fe…068ebacked Under	53c	26.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	54c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	58c	18.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event