NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7fcf3bb189b3be8f1957f030495c48f5f67cc121e5421cc78a84e9b0b8e991

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Wizardsof Pacers, Wizards
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,199 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc9aa…67e1backed Wizards	55c	6,537$3,610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,926.86	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-8.7wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers	44c	4,563$2,025 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,025.09	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	49c	2,116$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.48	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards	48c	1,445$696 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.91	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers	45c	1,292$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$586.98	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards	55c	1,066$585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.94	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers	44c	794.84$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.16	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Pacers	44c	780$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.2	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards	53c	515.25$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.35	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards	58c	400$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Wizards	58c	343.1$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.1	324	50.6%164 W · 160 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Pacers	41c	243.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	170	35.9%61 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Pacers	46c	233$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.4	666	46.8%312 W · 354 L	-29.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Wizards	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Pacers	50c	163$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.5	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers	44c	135.62$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.61	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Pacers	45c	118.03$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.11	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pacers	45c	104.04$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Pacers	42c	103.81$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Pacers	42c	100$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	93	58.1%54 W · 39 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Wizards	57c	97.99$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.14	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Pacers	44c	90$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Wizards	58c	77.53$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.53	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x95be…9968backed Wizards	54c	74.07$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards	55c	67.43$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.35	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pacers	45c	67.41$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards	57c	64.97$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.24	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Pacers	48c	60.16$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.86	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Pacers	48c	57.78$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Wizards	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed Wizards	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Pacers	44c	44.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards	57c	40.11$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.25	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Pacers	40c	39.53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Wizards	53c	38.81$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.24	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x709f…96ecbacked Wizards	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Wizards	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	405	41%166 W · 239 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pacers	41c	33.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Wizards	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…2e45backed Wizards	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Pacers	46c	27.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc244…9161backed Pacers	47c	25.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ae…305dbacked Wizards	56c	23.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.51	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+105.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Wizards	58c	20.17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.47	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Wizards	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	105	58.1%61 W · 44 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event