Ukraine · resolved market
Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216cfc5952a75a6c2005fa90a1f49524401abdde826aaa916af4c88a70426363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 4,169$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.41 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,211$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 17c | 2,713$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.74 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 8c | 2,661$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…87cbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 1,999$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,984$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,850$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 3c | 1,739$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…d3adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,646$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…69e7backed Yes | 11c | 1,130$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes | 7c | 1,031$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 8c | 1,026$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 1,015$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2e…03a7backed Yes | 11c | 921.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98de…d0f7backed Yes | 9c | 907.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 850$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 6c | 827.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…52b2backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 9c | 799.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 3c | 790.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Yes | 15c | 736.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 6c | 701.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 562.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 15c | 523$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 10c | 451$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 448.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 12c | 430.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 7c | 402.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…169dbacked Yes | 11c | 380$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 3c | 368.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 12c | 320$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed Yes | 8c | 298.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 5c | 260.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +54%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 148.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed Yes | 9c | 141.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…6ca3backed Yes | 19c | 131.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…e6f1backed Yes | 17c | 120.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Yes | 15c | 116.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…8f51backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…5469backed Yes | 17c | 61.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.