MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2171595d89ff6fffc64767b0c3d6d31593f64b9bbda4c10e674c8bfa587d8ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 29c | 6,630$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 4,713$3,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 6c | 2,010$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +363.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +173.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 1,478$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.48 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 7c | 1,424$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 5cpaid | +545.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa4…8968backed Over | 68c | 1,231$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44f…fff1backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Under | 7c | 1,200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 7c | 899.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 873$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd19…3fb8backed Under | 7c | 872.53$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 45c | 834.74$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.27 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +262.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 21c | 660.39$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 4c | 579.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 390.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 71c | 339.88$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 72c | 280$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 67c | 230$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Under | 40c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 37c | 104.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 30c | 87.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked Over | 40c | 65.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 65.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 35c | 37.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 72c | 37.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…a0c2backed Over | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 30c | 34.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 68c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 72c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 72c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 72c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.