TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f3…35e3backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c4,535$2,721 inLost-$2,7211,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners40c4,500$1,800 inWon+$2,70061351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Seattle Mariners38c2,000$760 inWon+$1,239.924150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c1,949$1,208 inLost-$1,208.24,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Seattle Mariners41c1,226$500 inWon+$726.1916543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Seattle Mariners38c704.7$268 inWon+$436.911,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c500$305 inLost-$30555052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks60c500$300 inLost-$3009,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c419.97$256 inLost-$256.1889053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9783…dccabacked Seattle Mariners39c400$156 inWon+$2447354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c400$244 inLost-$2446,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks59c370.03$219 inLost-$219.48,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks58c350.19$203 inLost-$203.112,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners39c96$37 inWon+$58.5646854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners39c96$37 inWon+$58.5672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners39c60$23 inWon+$36.61,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c50$31 inLost-$30.555643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c48.37$30 inLost-$29.53,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c47.55$29 inLost-$2911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd687…a024backed Seattle Mariners39c35.9$14 inWon+$21.96063.3%38 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners40c25$10 inWon+$1570455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.