MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97ef588c625dfb88f60a18274e778af70e67ca2b181990c844bc28609ee93258
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 56c | 57,274$32,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,041.55 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 17,291$7,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,680.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 8,310$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,653.77 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 6,275$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,514.31 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 5,768$2,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,230.14 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 45c | 4,189$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.29 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Under | 55c | 2,758$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.08 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 1,871$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 44c | 1,820$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 1,741$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 1,420$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 1,414$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 44c | 1,206$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.36 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 45c | 1,010$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.16 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 44c | 948.56$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Over | 54c | 829$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.66 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 44c | 693$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.08 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 661.86$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 611$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 460$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 54c | 350$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 58c | 339.42$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 54c | 314.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 299$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 63c | 253.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 41c | 221.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 215.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 40c | 202.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 38c | 199.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 144.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…f799backed Over | 55c | 144$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 54c | 135.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…dc02backed Over | 57c | 87.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Over | 39c | 64.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 57.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 42c | 36.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Over | 54c | 32.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked Over | 59c | 32.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Under | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 52c | 23.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.