Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2188c5d06ec4e3f038bf50ea50847943da4ff456e895762e42a37140ac1b37e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof Udinese Calcio, AC Milan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Udinese Calcio | 2c | 815.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.72 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked AC Milan | 60c | 660.41$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.65 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Udinese Calcio | 37c | 577.05$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.67 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed AC Milan | 66c | 404.48$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Udinese Calcio | 35c | 346.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.21 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed AC Milan | 31c | 229.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed AC Milan | 57c | 85.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked AC Milan | 55c | 84.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…0241backed AC Milan | 62c | 78.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Udinese Calcio | 56c | 52.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked AC Milan | 63c | 49.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Udinese Calcio | 52c | 34.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…aae2backed AC Milan | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…d03fbacked AC Milan | 58c | 26.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked AC Milan | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.