Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c81341faea2e059569b1c99a48ead5b2b3451602313a24393c3a280d2068e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 9,131$6,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.3 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 30c | 8,010$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.95 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 11c | 2,579$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,586$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.58 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 71c | 1,388$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.55 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 624.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 536.06$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…616dbacked Under | 23c | 459.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 303.29$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 78c | 273.27$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 72c | 272.59$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Under | 34c | 270.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 13c | 262.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Under | 11c | 258.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 75c | 147.75$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 80c | 138.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…73a3backed Under | 11c | 129.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 70c | 109$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 77c | 107.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 67c | 103.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 98.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 73c | 96.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Over | 71c | 68.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Over | 72c | 49.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Over | 71c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 66c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 70c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 67c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Over | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…7b78backed Over | 65c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.