Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb3bd2f125cf32120b433fdd9eed0b597835134b5701a4327f4b7271f7fc6b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof AC Milan, Udinese Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed AC Milan | 4c | 5,362$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.08 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Udinese Calcio | 57c | 3,000$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.98 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Udinese Calcio | 62c | 2,930$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.81 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed AC Milan | 44c | 2,143$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Udinese Calcio | 61c | 1,236$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.91 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked AC Milan | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…644cbacked Udinese Calcio | 57c | 1,034$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed AC Milan | 43c | 1,019$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Udinese Calcio | 58c | 945.36$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AC Milan | 37c | 837.14$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.92 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 688.29$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.95 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 683.66$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.64 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Udinese Calcio | 59c | 590.61$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed AC Milan | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked AC Milan | 43c | 455.87$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…dd6bbacked AC Milan | 40c | 447.31$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Udinese Calcio | 61c | 440.7$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.13 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked AC Milan | 41c | 423.48$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed AC Milan | 43c | 392.08$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -11.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked AC Milan | 41c | 385.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 124 | 22.6%28 W · 96 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Udinese Calcio | 63c | 381.13$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 361.77$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.26 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Udinese Calcio | 60c | 337.65$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 337.65$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed AC Milan | 41c | 323.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Udinese Calcio | 62c | 289.04$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…f62bbacked AC Milan | 42c | 287.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 243.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed AC Milan | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Udinese Calcio | 57c | 225$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked AC Milan | 27c | 210.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 203.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AC Milan | 18c | 190.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed AC Milan | 42c | 185.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed AC Milan | 41c | 178.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Udinese Calcio | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed AC Milan | 42c | 160.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AC Milan | 41c | 157.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Udinese Calcio | 58c | 156.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Udinese Calcio | 57c | 146.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed AC Milan | 21c | 119.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed AC Milan | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Udinese Calcio | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 157 | 55.4%87 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Udinese Calcio | 60c | 82.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Udinese Calcio | 58c | 81.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Udinese Calcio | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed AC Milan | 38c | 75.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed AC Milan | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed AC Milan | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed AC Milan | 43c | 64.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked AC Milan | 27c | 59.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked AC Milan | 40c | 52.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed AC Milan | 42c | 51.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…ddeebacked AC Milan | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Udinese Calcio | 57c | 43.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Udinese Calcio | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed AC Milan | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked AC Milan | 44c | 38.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Udinese Calcio | 59c | 36.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked AC Milan | 42c | 36.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed AC Milan | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Udinese Calcio | 72c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Udinese Calcio | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Udinese Calcio | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Udinese Calcio | 66c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…eddfbacked Udinese Calcio | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…90fdbacked Udinese Calcio | 58c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Udinese Calcio | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.