Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a90dd6a36b4279ff9b4553398bc8b269e1115c1c93409f03806f2d3ddabed7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 2,914$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.12 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 1,490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.3 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 519.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 382.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 368.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 20c | 196.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 189.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 14c | 94.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 14c | 89.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 20c | 66.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Over | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x650c…84d4backed Under | 74c | 36.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.