Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21afd116f84f09cc0f8e88f39e439b0e08c504049f0fb57b0512bfc217c17e1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 307.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 5c | 190.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 17c | 173.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 28c | 164.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 164.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 164.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 152.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 30c | 143.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 141.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 130.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 128.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 121.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 108$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 23c | 107.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 38c | 102.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 100.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 21c | 96.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 23c | 85.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 17c | 72.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 19c | 71.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 28c | 70.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 65.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 63.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 27c | 61.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…6444backed Yes | 34c | 61.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 60.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 58.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 19c | 57.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 55.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 50.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 48.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 47.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 39c | 33.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 71c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 28.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 28.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 27.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 72c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 22.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed No | 67c | 17.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.