Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c56e739416a8b6fb6d94cd9bd698e224f998473da862dbbf544609d7e7270c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 704.29$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 368.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 363.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 214.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 207.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 33c | 198.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 195.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 184.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 52c | 176.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 52c | 164.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 46c | 158.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 141.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 128.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 127.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 25c | 117.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 115.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 101.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 48c | 101.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 100.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 97.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…4551backed Yes | 62c | 96.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 53c | 94.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 93.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 88.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 82.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 80.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 67c | 76.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 69.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 65.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 61c | 65.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 58.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 57.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 56.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 51.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 71c | 49.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 41c | 48.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 48c | 45.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked No | 52c | 43.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccbc…f417backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 49c | 41.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 39.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 79c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 27c | 37.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 37.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 36.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 72c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 54c | 29.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 56c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 46c | 22.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 54c | 21.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 55c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 54c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.