Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d1ee4d701c375ed46cf04bfb4312cf297a59a73f3ee2d22007324c1471b4e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 5,867$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 2,160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 17c | 1,211$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 10c | 1,112$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.19 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 4c | 740$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 680$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 6c | 427.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 18c | 424.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 408.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 347.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 286.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 277.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 22c | 274.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 17c | 193.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 184.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 7c | 163.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 159.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 18c | 145.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 93.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 85.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 17c | 65.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…da4cbacked Yes | 19c | 57.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 32.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 23.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 22.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x378d…d1c9backed No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.