Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84be0dbd38c2ce4d6d83a2e54fe40cbb74dddeb097344d284dfef6ddb578f91c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 60c | 896.18$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.06 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 75c | 830.37$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 648.9$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 642.39$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.39 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 594.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 13c | 549.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 17c | 504.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 72c | 504.09$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 439.3$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 4c | 380.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 335.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 333.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 326.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 29c | 322.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.58 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 302.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 35c | 266.91$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 242.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 235.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 51c | 230$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 224.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 65c | 197.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 160.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 62c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 159.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 42c | 151.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 44c | 150.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 141$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 138.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 132$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 131.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 44c | 128.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 124.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 120.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 65c | 114.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 28c | 114.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 72c | 103.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 101.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 100.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 21c | 99.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…d9ebbacked No | 16c | 99.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 96.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 64c | 96.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 31c | 95.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…ba4abacked Yes | 75c | 95.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 92.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 23c | 91.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 57c | 89.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked No | 23c | 79.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 79.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…e15abacked No | 22c | 77.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 76.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 18c | 72.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 51c | 69.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 64.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 18c | 64.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 54c | 63.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 53c | 61.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 59.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 55.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 56c | 54.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 21c | 54.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…05f0backed No | 20c | 54.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 21c | 54.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 53.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 52.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 54c | 51.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 53c | 45.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 53c | 43.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 46c | 43.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 43.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 41.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 40.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…c60dbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 39.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 60c | 38.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 36c | 38.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 54c | 38.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 37.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 56c | 33.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 33.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…6041backed No | 58c | 32.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 37c | 32.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.