Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a869badaa2d0ea686ea2a5067a29634bc426540097aa92b7260e3e5a5fe7a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 1,851$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,173$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 743.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 622.59$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.76 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 77c | 607.33$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 16c | 563.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 513.47$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 15c | 494.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 490.93$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 75c | 430.97$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 404.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 387.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 370.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 21c | 365.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 30c | 347.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 341.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 22c | 308.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 29c | 239.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 23c | 229.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 220.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 186.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 24c | 177.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 177.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 22c | 139.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 138.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 125.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 124.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 29c | 124.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 28c | 118.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 18c | 116$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 116$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 110.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 28c | 109.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 107.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 17c | 102.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…eb9fbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 32c | 96.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 93.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 92.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 90.95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 89.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 30c | 87.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes | 25c | 83.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 82.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 30c | 81.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 22c | 80.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 76.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed No | 71c | 71.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 31c | 69.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 67.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 66.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 17c | 62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 61.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…472cbacked Yes | 20c | 60.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 57.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 71c | 54.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 54.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 35c | 52.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed Yes | 31c | 52.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…da4cbacked Yes | 29c | 52.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 51.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 78c | 51.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…b2afbacked No | 67c | 46.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 41.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 35c | 40.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 40.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 78c | 40.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 25c | 39.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 28c | 35.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 33.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed Yes | 34c | 32.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 31.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…60f9backed No | 73c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 27.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 26.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.