TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,960

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes18c1,851$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.462,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…29e8backed Yes2c1,173$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes2c1,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes17c743.29$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c622.59$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.761,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No77c607.33$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes16c563.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9343238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c513.47$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.733,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes15c494.75$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9238515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c490.93$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No75c430.97$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2527841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c404.3$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.385,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes21c387.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.471,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes15c370.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.182,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes21c365.28$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5234628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes30c347.52$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7122350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes21c341.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.351,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes22c308.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes29c239.08$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes23c229.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c220.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes17c186.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes24c177.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes28c177.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No68c146.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2132872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes22c139.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305056%28 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No77c138.48$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.823,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c125.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.82,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c124.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes29c124.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes28c118.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.316237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes18c116$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c116$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.13,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No78c110.63$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5492678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes28c109.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No77c107.66$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.242,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes17c102.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes28c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88f…1096backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8796…eb9fbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.541586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick61cpaid+41.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c98.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No75c97$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.511,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes32c96.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.972638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No77c95$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.771,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c93.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.199,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No77c92.63$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.341760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No70c90.95$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2840352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c89.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.853,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes30c87.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.225825.9%15 W · 43 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes25c83.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c82.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.671,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed Yes30c81.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1135441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes22c80.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.279744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c76.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.432,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed No71c71.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4411935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.154656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c69.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.32,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes31c69.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1246549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes39c67.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.442,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No71c66.9$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x696f…8f04backed Yes17c62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.374124.4%10 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes19c61.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.062,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…472cbacked Yes20c60.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes28c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.824434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes21c57.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No71c54.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0519662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No73c54.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.672,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes35c52.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4710053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x28f5…dbe4backed Yes31c52.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.082045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc9…da4cbacked Yes29c52.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c51.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.021,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No78c51.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.357166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…b2afbacked No67c46.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes30c42.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.862,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes34c42.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6352446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No68c41.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes35c40.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4711729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No79c40.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.491,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed No78c40.12$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes25c39.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.033619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No69c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4739968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8629…bdf5backed Yes32c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5212832%41 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes28c35.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0140741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No79c33.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.092,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4101…d968backed No75c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.252540%10 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed Yes34c32.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.895154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No71c31.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.052,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.72,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0999571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fa…60f9backed No73c27.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c27.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.814,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No72c26.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c26.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.