Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21dadf4eefa29c30fb0a639964ba794a36e107a08dd8761ac1245c576bcf784f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,607$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 1,119$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 49c | 843.28$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 51c | 739.99$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.98 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 26c | 692.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.95 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 51c | 567.34$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.93 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 19c | 515.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…6a1abacked No | 51c | 490.17$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 49c | 482.25$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 71c | 281.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 79c | 265.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 52c | 245.03$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 69c | 241.11$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 233.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 47c | 231.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked No | 24c | 230$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 225.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 36c | 217.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…1558backed No | 6c | 216.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 60c | 210$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 41c | 207.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 33c | 204.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…b428backed No | 63c | 199.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 73c | 192.29$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 175$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 60c | 172.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0597…5265backed Yes | 59c | 168.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 44c | 157.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 33c | 153.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 150.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked No | 44c | 144.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 80c | 137.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 132.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 132.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 45c | 130.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 127.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 53c | 127.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 37c | 122.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 31c | 118.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 52c | 113.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Yes | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 107.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 36c | 103.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 29c | 102.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 37c | 102.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 102.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 101.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 48c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 97.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 97.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 77c | 95.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 54c | 91.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 39c | 91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…cbaebacked Yes | 54c | 90.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 51c | 89.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 41c | 86.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 59c | 84.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 21c | 82.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 29c | 80.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 76.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 74.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 38c | 72.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 36c | 69.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 67c | 69.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 63.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 65c | 59.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 59.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed No | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 58.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 58.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 77c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 66c | 54.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 50c | 53.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…d485backed Yes | 80c | 47.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 45.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 49c | 45.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 52c | 45.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 44.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 48c | 44.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 44.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 50c | 43.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 42.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…9f16backed No | 42c | 40.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf8…0e86backed Yes | 54c | 40.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 40.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.