Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f8402a3817ac47de45ac2678cd2d515c471fc3f1baefbbcc044a92ae10e2102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 13c | 679.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 37c | 626.26$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.6 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 479.49$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 279.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 74c | 252.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked No | 79c | 207.57$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 80c | 206.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 199.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed Yes | 73c | 187.19$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 58c | 186.4$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 57c | 175.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 166.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 165.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 162.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 153.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 150.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 146.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 69c | 141.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 60c | 134.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 130.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 129.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 128$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 125.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 125.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 116.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked Yes | 24c | 116.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 111.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 68c | 106.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 101.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 43c | 100.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 32c | 99.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 24c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 25c | 92.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf8…0e86backed Yes | 54c | 90.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 85.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 83.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 83.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 75.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 70.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 67.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 41c | 65.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 64.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 33c | 64.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 57c | 61.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 46c | 58.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 57.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 57.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 52.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 50.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 50.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 50.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 50.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 48.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 33c | 44.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 24c | 44.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 72c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 43c | 43.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 43.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 70c | 43.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 40c | 42.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 41.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 60c | 41.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 61c | 40.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 74c | 39.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 38.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 57c | 37.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 36.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 34.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 68c | 32.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 28.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…978bbacked No | 65c | 27.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 63c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 66c | 24.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 60c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 72c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 22.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…988dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 62c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.