TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1467…4372backed No65c26,882$17,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,473.474264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No64c18,428$11,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,767.653548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes35c17,212$6,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,187.591,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No17c9,355$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes35c6,700$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382.0869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes37c6,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7805461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No13c5,673$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.723,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes36c4,823$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.027255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes36c4,480$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.6448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes66c3,125$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.5528345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes35c2,581$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.37538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes35c1,985$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.3214447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes36c1,714$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.921,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No16c1,499$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.681,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No64c1,472$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.0815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed No64c1,372$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8783046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed No1c1,363$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.631040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes36c1,294$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.8820845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No18c1,292$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.2814315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No3c1,238$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.076232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No18c1,173$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9143532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed No21c1,029$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.06922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed No64c999.98$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.991822.2%4 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-60.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No65c965.72$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.7238646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes35c887$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.557443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No65c868.14$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.296549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No63c864.98$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0911354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19e9…239bbacked Yes36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.331154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Yes34c735.17$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.422133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes71c664.68$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No66c598.87$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0426445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No64c535.72$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed No16c516.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.64425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No15c487.17$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4140744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes35c439$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.3556951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No65c400$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605046%23 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No65c400$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Yes40c362.61$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.689248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Yes57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.882751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes35c348.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9833047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No15c340.65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.454153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a7…55bebacked No65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9950…1432backed No65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes35c290$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.510942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.714924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x923c…6d03backed Yes37c285.39$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.85131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x867b…9fbabacked Yes36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes35c277$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.211,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No6c276.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.617032.9%23 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Yes37c270.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.961631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes35c240$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15616343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes33c232.66$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes36c205.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5610946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Yes37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No37c174.95$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0827554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes34c157.93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012271.3%87 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes34c146.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4442046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes58c146$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3211762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.142828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked No16c132.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.266046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No65c121.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9662452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed No65c119.26$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.521855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Yes49c101$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5116464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b67…829fbacked No11c100.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.156937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc16a…d1e4backed No42c96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd71…6714backed No65c92.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dc…183ebacked No65c92.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed No17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Yes36c85.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685a…37e0backed No17c81.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7f…4c60backed No64c78.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes35c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.54252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Yes57c69.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.571866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2716…a6f4backed Yes36c69.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.441250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed No16c69.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.061030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-53.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Yes63c67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.795358.5%31 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30dc…9fa0backed No66c63.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc96…1245backed Yes76c62.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed No64c62.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1310244.1%45 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes75c62.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No65c61.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3711338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yes50c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.520645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes77c52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.885064%32 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes61c50.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6811356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No20c50.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1339857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes38c47.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.373953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f32…bfe8backed Yes63c47.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.272864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes36c44.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.375341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed No36c42.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.222737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6444…672ebacked No64c40.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.612766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2622854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No42c38.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2464043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99c…62aebacked No65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes36c38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.326056.7%34 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc251…a5d3backed No65c32.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes50c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.539558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.