Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd969729ba3f630fc8bcc6b28c95dcdb9d8dc6349b73b91a5c2d82d455370171f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 1,904$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.87 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 17c | 1,785$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…c4d1backed No | 76c | 1,697$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…04e3backed No | 76c | 1,405$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…8f5fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 76c | 949$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.76 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 805.4$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 24c | 765$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 757.6$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.4 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 608.31$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 548.23$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 24c | 538.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 76c | 439.99$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Yes | 24c | 322.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 295.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 23c | 263.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 16c | 257$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 80c | 206$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 17c | 202.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…16c7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 25c | 199.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 76c | 176.79$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 75c | 172.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 169$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 75c | 145.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 79c | 145.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 15c | 141.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 79c | 135.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 76c | 134.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 20c | 133.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Yes | 24c | 123.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 79c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked Yes | 17c | 105.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a0…a8a6backed Yes | 21c | 88.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 24c | 87.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…4bdebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Yes | 23c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 25c | 63.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 59.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 25c | 57.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 50.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 25c | 43.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc580…eb65backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 76c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked No | 76c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed No | 76c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 79c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.