World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f5ea768771ddc21751bc8b05ee1a8598784fe8fc34e72971336364610a13bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 37c | 1,282$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 461.55$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.78 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 330.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.26 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 26c | 280.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 74c | 280.39$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 48c | 269$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 51c | 224.91$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed No | 69c | 215$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 184.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 168$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 164.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 35c | 162.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 144.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 105.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 100.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 27c | 88.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 86.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 85.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170d…064cbacked Yes | 26c | 84.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 80.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 73.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 72.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 59.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 53.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 60c | 42.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…a4fabacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 33.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 51c | 33.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 33.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 61c | 32.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 32c | 32.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 36c | 31.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 62c | 31.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…ae00backed Yes | 60c | 21.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 14.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.