Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221387da504771ff667819d4fea9d053cddd6df4f7ca2bbca291586e97c0bcc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 2c | 641.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 535.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 436.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 425.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 401.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 15c | 300.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 17c | 266.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 266.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 263.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 4c | 237.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 232.9$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 22c | 226$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 5c | 222.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 186.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 164.98$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 164.61$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 134.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 133.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 132.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 130.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 30c | 102$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 100.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 19c | 85.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 24c | 82.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 79.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 67c | 59.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 29.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 29.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 26.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 69c | 16.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.