Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d56c9eca9efb956d004144d6ece7b29f157f06d30a32f5774710fc94998d218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 53c | 547.44$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.3 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 397.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 386.75$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 59c | 329.76$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 295.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 290$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 285.52$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 277.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 265.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 221.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 16c | 194.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 189.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 186.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 77c | 164.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 53c | 148.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 140.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 13c | 135.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 46c | 129.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 50c | 125.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 42c | 124$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 114.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 105.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…714fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 96.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 93.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 40c | 93.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 30c | 89.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 14c | 87.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 79.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 77c | 78.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 78.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 73.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 29c | 72.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 66.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 62.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 51c | 62.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…a955backed No | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 57c | 54.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 38c | 53.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 48.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 41c | 47.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 46c | 47.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 42.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 41.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 36c | 41.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 48c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 34.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 46c | 32.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…71a7backed No | 80c | 31.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 43c | 30.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 71c | 27.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.