TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8383…cb59backed No6c1,551$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0149543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked No48c600.34$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2716833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No30c596.07$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7553925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked No64c362$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2340438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No78c299.83$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.4910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No31c299.75$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.968,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No40c289.53$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.841,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes35c274$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9391444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes57c264.02$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5316641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c240.83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No38c238.55$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.656,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No18c220$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.61,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c215.65$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.141,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes37c209.09$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3663538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No73c200$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14579040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes80c195.7$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.492,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No23c190.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.144,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No28c186.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.572,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…93f1backed No73c172.73$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.096738.8%26 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes30c167.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1945253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No68c163.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.32,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes80c163.05$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.099239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes75c150.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.435350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b17…f3febacked No74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.178247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No58c141.22$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.397,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes72c139.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.867968.4%54 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a68…edd3backed Yes72c138.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3118235.2%64 W · 118 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes78c137.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.992,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7445…268fbacked Yes58c137.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.842045%9 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683b…c863backed No38c133.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes68c131.09$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9920662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No65c130$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed No14c125.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.288333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes37c123.05$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4922446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes38c117$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8741331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c110.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No56c110$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.62,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No49c106.34$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3327852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No26c103.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes21c101$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.94,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2514119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed No24c96.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3396620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c96.44$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes71c95.73$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.578061.3%49 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes43c84.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5341051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes74c81.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1213266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No22c80.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6219345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes78c78.63$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes64c74.72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.734935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c73.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.685,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes79c73.02$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.362,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No19c69.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes36c69.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.333,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes34c69.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.741850%9 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+80.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes72c68.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.012,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No45c66.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f79…d807backed No40c65.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No21c64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c63.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes39c62.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.577855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a05…9caebacked Yes64c62.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes65c61.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.789661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No29c61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No34c57.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6423538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3430…14c2backed Yes70c56.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.88862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c7…2a67backed Yes78c55.4$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes57c53.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.041752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes44c52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1249854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes22c50.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.513,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726c…ebe0backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes61c49.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2823951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes31c48.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes39c47.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c46.77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes37c46.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1935137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0285…9050backed No60c44.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.571040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No68c44.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes68c44.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.194839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes66c42.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.471,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c40.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.795,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0720546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes49c39.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.069646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x789d…af8bbacked No73c39.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.469060%54 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No53c35.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.711,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes77c35.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.231392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+33.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2119541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes57c33.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.386952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No61c31.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3912351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd628…9356backed No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.613344.4%59 W · 74 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5e…c962backed Yes71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No68c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.377851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes65c28.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.940265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda66…4aeebacked No63c27.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52161.9%13 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No59c27.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1743848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8e50backed Yes43c27.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.578100%8 W · 0 L+3.8wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+102.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No80c25.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6288973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…813abacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.273360.6%20 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.246452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.