Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6776f750830d2f96ebc330ccf050edc1a00f8cffa408d57991304e52c58c73d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 6c | 1,551$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 48c | 600.34$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 30c | 596.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 64c | 362$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.23 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 299.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 31c | 299.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 289.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 274$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 57c | 264.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.53 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 240.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 238.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 215.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.14 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 209.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.36 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 73c | 200$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 80c | 195.7$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 190.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 186.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 73c | 172.73$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 30c | 167.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 163.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 80c | 163.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 75c | 150.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 141.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 72c | 139.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 72c | 138.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 137.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 58c | 137.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 38c | 133.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 68c | 131.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 14c | 125.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 37c | 123.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 38c | 117$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 110.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 49c | 106.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 103.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 24c | 96.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 96.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 71c | 95.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 43c | 84.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 74c | 81.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 22c | 80.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 78.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 64c | 74.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 73.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 73.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 69.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 69.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 34c | 69.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 68.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 66.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed No | 40c | 65.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 63.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 39c | 62.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 64c | 62.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 61.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 34c | 57.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…14c2backed Yes | 70c | 56.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…2a67backed Yes | 78c | 55.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 57c | 53.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 50.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 61c | 49.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 48.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 39c | 47.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 46.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 46.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…9050backed No | 60c | 44.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 44.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 42.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 40.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 49c | 39.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 73c | 39.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 35.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes | 77c | 35.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 57c | 33.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 61c | 31.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…c962backed Yes | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 63c | 27.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 59c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed Yes | 43c | 27.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 25.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.