NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x223f327f73e0503462d00903dd4d167eb54dc3d7c74a359aa6d88b7d39145e4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,571 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Pelicans | 52c | 4,792$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 48c | 3,135$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.82 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Knicks | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Pelicans | 51c | 221.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Knicks | 55c | 181.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Knicks | 58c | 124$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pelicans | 41c | 85.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Knicks | 46c | 74.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…0595backed Knicks | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked Pelicans | 43c | 56.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Pelicans | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Knicks | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Mitchell Robinson: Points O/U 5.5Yes won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Pelicans vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.