Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x225a043dcf12c36bd86aea4dbc532a69c808880cefcb6b7b9cf0623d8cac8919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 504.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 390.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 6c | 362.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 220.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 208.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 43c | 197.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 18c | 169.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 167$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 33c | 146.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 65c | 130.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 23c | 103.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 99.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 98.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 95.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 40c | 91.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 29c | 66.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 62.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 61.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 71c | 59.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 56.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 53.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 53.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 28c | 52.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 51c | 48.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 39c | 47.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 46.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 45.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 68c | 43.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 36.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 32.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 68c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 64c | 29.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 26.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 23.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…08febacked No | 61c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed No | 67c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.