Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66a708ca0c43862fde128fa727b9d6ee95a904498d2b087dd9509904f88dca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed Yes | 0c | 5,220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 1c | 4,048$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,147$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 9c | 592.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 8c | 545.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 525.48$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 464.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 325.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 11c | 263$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 53c | 251.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 209.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 209.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 182.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 48c | 181.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 171.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 132.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 12c | 129.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 123.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 120.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 37c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 50c | 100.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 60c | 93.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 12c | 91.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 55c | 84.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 42c | 84.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 82.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 49c | 78.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…f18dbacked Yes | 31c | 62.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 24c | 62.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 48c | 60.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 38c | 47.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 64c | 44.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 63c | 40.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 46c | 38.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9209backed Yes | 33c | 36.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 33.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 61c | 31.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 55c | 31.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 30.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 30.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 62c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 54c | 29.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 74c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 27.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked No | 51c | 25.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 22.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…bbfabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 64c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.