TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c1,135$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.274,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes69c662.83$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.931043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c466.47$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes47c414.07$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.571,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c298.92$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.683,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No58c280$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2431262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No36c217.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1360523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No15c203.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.742,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes47c186.63$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.471,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No75c181.76$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes29c173$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2237835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c149.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes55c148.88$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6310642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedeb…3553backed Yes72c138.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.712445.8%11 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-36.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c133.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.742976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No72c129.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9747136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c126.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.622,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes27c116.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.430813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes30c112.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7910834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No41c111.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.244,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes53c107.52$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c107.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes32c104.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes42c100.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7321641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.091,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c96$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.614,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No67c90$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes61c85.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7144757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c84.17$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes24c83.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.423839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No32c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.251,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c78.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.749,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes32c71.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4845236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No68c71.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.422,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No27c71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2638258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes35c66.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.215940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes45c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9925946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes32c66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.145127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes68c65.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.721540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No47c61.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.138758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes33c60.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.161637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No45c56.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.893,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No40c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.782,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes50c54.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2729520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No49c54.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.841258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c54.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes29c53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6363538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No30c50.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.131,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No59c49.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked Yes34c49.28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5812068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9881…14ebbacked Yes32c42.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dae…e592backed Yes68c41.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.27757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…6a1abacked No60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No68c41.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0821173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c39.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.768,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No46c36.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7739157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No71c35.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.743441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No78c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2493734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes55c34.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b18…bd24backed No58c34.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.96564.6%42 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No75c33.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0312363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.829740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes36c28.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9342049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes65c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.874344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed No74c27.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202025%5 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.253,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes64c25.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1943050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No70c25.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.843859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No72c25.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No72c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No51c22.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4935854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes66c20.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.126160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes51c20.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2922450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No62c20.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes56c20.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c19.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.751,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No68c19.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.192,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No64c18.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0250373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No69c17.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No74c17.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b3…7d44backed No74c17.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8818449.5%91 W · 93 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4171464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c35…4801backed No64c15.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3527648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.28856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.