TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Rip" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,231 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed No13c900.39$121 inLost-$121.548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed No18c569$103 inLost-$103.225822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No14c564$80 inLost-$80.1524634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No9c500.67$46 inLost-$45.645215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c418.24$26 inLost-$26.261,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No14c291.38$41 inLost-$40.7213337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No16c267.83$44 inLost-$43.712938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No22c218.87$48 inLost-$47.894148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No21c200$43 inLost-$42.71,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No10c182.24$18 inLost-$17.853053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No6c166.1$10 inLost-$10.297619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No15c123.27$18 inLost-$18.186619.7%13 W · 53 L-14.5wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-65%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2863…20b0backed Yes79c121.27$96 inWon+$24.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ef…143bbacked Yes73c119.8$88 inWon+$31.84955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No26c119.33$31 inLost-$31.3916741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes71c115.03$82 inWon+$32.9613321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc904…9877backed Yes80c103.64$83 inWon+$21.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes74c97.7$72 inWon+$25.74845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes79c88.61$70 inWon+$18.615151%26 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes75c87.73$66 inWon+$21.7420668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No24c41.8$10 inLost-$10.094847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed Yes78c40$31 inWon+$8.895572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf06c…1671backed Yes76c39.23$30 inWon+$9.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b56…6431backed Yes64c26.01$17 inWon+$9.245100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xadc8…9490backed Yes75c17.33$13 inWon+$4.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.