Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2287b22905e369baef8d3a8741603030d2c1cc2819a3ac8be689d6aa1279fda1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,361$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 14c | 1,162$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.35 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 808.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 16c | 779.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 642.97$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 46c | 564.45$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.18 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 53c | 399.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 6c | 283$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 64c | 268.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 260.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 256.56$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed No | 49c | 222.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 218.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 204.15$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 180.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 138.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 62c | 116.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 102.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 47c | 100.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Yes | 55c | 99.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 90.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked Yes | 29c | 87.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…122ebacked No | 78c | 86.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…a90ebacked Yes | 56c | 80.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…616dbacked No | 78c | 79.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 55c | 77.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 71.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…2356backed No | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 47.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 61c | 47.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 62c | 45.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 55c | 42.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…4a74backed Yes | 57c | 41.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 62c | 41.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 61c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e6…c6dbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 45c | 30.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 60c | 30.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 28.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda05…1d03backed Yes | 72c | 25.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…c7dcbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 55c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…5da6backed Yes | 60c | 20.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…a996backed No | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdceb…53efbacked No | 78c | 15.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…88babacked No | 79c | 12.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C or higher on February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.