Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07abc9818c1d97803c489c96c0b2f995128848ea134b308ebdfb8a02df6fe179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 20c | 1,596$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.28 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,128$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 17c | 995.34$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.59 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 13c | 526.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked No | 10c | 521.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 48c | 429.14$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 12c | 426.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed No | 11c | 399.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 386.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 79c | 363.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 8c | 293.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 39c | 243.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.16 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 30c | 235.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…bfb4backed Yes | 43c | 232.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 48c | 215$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 53c | 203.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4e72backed Yes | 71c | 188.84$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 162.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 157.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 143.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 8c | 134.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 134.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 70c | 132.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 114.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 26c | 114.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 37c | 112.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…ca2ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…c7dcbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 42c | 95.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked No | 65c | 88.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 85.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 82.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a9…565cbacked Yes | 38c | 79.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 35c | 78.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 29c | 75.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 71.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…9b8cbacked No | 29c | 69.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 44c | 65.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed Yes | 75c | 58.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked Yes | 77c | 58.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 57c | 56.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 40c | 53.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…44c3backed Yes | 41c | 53.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda05…1d03backed Yes | 41c | 48.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdceb…53efbacked No | 71c | 45.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 64c | 44.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 47c | 42.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 51c | 41.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 31c | 39.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 56c | 36.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 67c | 35.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…537dbacked Yes | 74c | 35.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 69c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 67c | 28.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 41c | 25.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…cc46backed Yes | 53c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 53c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 60c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C or higher on February 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.