Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b7c185271d68f6a307ee410f8b35aa48ec334d4732992cbd2567383f9c263d

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tundra Esportsof Natus Vincere, Tundra Esports
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $83,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,408

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,480 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere	37c	24,118$9,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,008.69	102	36.3%37 W · 65 L	-10.7wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports	67c	16,502$11,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,483.92	106	61.3%65 W · 41 L	+10.4wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Tundra Esports	60c	14,121$8,506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,615.73	158	52.5%83 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Natus Vincere	42c	6,790$2,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,845.53	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Tundra Esports	60c	6,143$3,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,443.1	90	55.6%50 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere	36c	4,368$1,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,561.36	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere	35c	4,244$1,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.17	218	47.2%103 W · 115 L	+16.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Tundra Esports	58c	3,539$2,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,486.35	78	55.1%43 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Natus Vincere	38c	3,099$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188.14	226	47.3%107 W · 119 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Tundra Esports	58c	3,078$1,784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,293.7	180	75%135 W · 45 L	+18.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Natus Vincere	43c	2,542$1,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,093	190	47.9%91 W · 99 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere	36c	1,852$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.67	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Tundra Esports	69c	1,783$1,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$558.98	234	65%152 W · 82 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere	36c	1,573$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.33	894	40.3%360 W · 534 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Natus Vincere	44c	1,485$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.2	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+7.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+30%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Natus Vincere	34c	1,114$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.06	179	50.3%90 W · 89 L	+14.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports	55c	1,100$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$494.22	192	46.4%89 W · 103 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Tundra Esports	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe612…abc9backed Natus Vincere	47c	985.95$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.11	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere	3c	939$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.54	616	9.7%60 W · 556 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Tundra Esports	72c	700$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.1	107	45.8%49 W · 58 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere	43c	600$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere	17c	544$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.02	91	28.6%26 W · 65 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Tundra Esports	59c	518.67$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.72	805	44.6%359 W · 446 L	-25.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Tundra Esports	66c	454.55$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.55	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports	64c	400$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Natus Vincere	41c	361.77$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.79	581	52.5%305 W · 276 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aed…eb43backed Tundra Esports	58c	279.31$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.31	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Tundra Esports	67c	273.91$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.44	283	41%116 W · 167 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Tundra Esports	57c	249.99$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.49	171	46.8%80 W · 91 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Tundra Esports	73c	227$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.08	80	66.3%53 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Natus Vincere	41c	217.46$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.16	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Tundra Esports	64c	215.03$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.41	39	64.1%25 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Tundra Esports	62c	210$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.9	353	70%247 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	69cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Natus Vincere	22c	200$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	108	50%54 W · 54 L	+8.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77cf…4a81backed Tundra Esports	53c	173$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.55	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ac…63bcbacked Tundra Esports	58c	171.33$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.96	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere	30c	169$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.7	592	50.5%299 W · 293 L	-20.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Natus Vincere	46c	146.89$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.24	346	67.9%235 W · 111 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…e0d7backed Natus Vincere	48c	129.17$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf948…3c5fbacked Tundra Esports	59c	117.3$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.3	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-4.4wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Tundra Esports	59c	104.99$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.81	145	37.2%54 W · 91 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Tundra Esports	64c	103.39$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.22	464	51.5%239 W · 225 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaac2…df3abacked Natus Vincere	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	49	36.7%18 W · 31 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd36…873bbacked Natus Vincere	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	405	39.3%159 W · 246 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fac…bdd8backed Tundra Esports	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	134	56%75 W · 59 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked Natus Vincere	33c	99.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	122	48.4%59 W · 63 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…fc02backed Natus Vincere	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere	36c	95.95$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb719…dacbbacked Natus Vincere	50c	78$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+4.1wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7283…f4abbacked Natus Vincere	53c	72.64$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.31per pick	59cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Natus Vincere	35c	70$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe228…34b3backed Tundra Esports	47c	70$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.1	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc1e…07d1backed Tundra Esports	64c	60$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	64cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dcb…7089backed Tundra Esports	67c	59.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.85	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Natus Vincere	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Natus Vincere	45c	55.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Natus Vincere	34c	51.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	555	61.8%343 W · 212 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb4…59d4backed Natus Vincere	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Tundra Esports	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed Natus Vincere	27c	39.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	153	41.2%63 W · 90 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3947…b51bbacked Natus Vincere	43c	34.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe564…e530backed Tundra Esports	66c	22.73$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.73	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Tundra Esports	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.7	20	80%16 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	71cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1765backed Tundra Esports	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports (BO3)Tundra Esports won
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event