Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb033743b9a55a23f87041843c69243fd6249a9b4ccf1fcd73a42fd17864d4995
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Natus Vincere, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 13,157$4,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,156 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 7,550$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.55 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 4,813$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.04 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 4,406$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.7 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 4,056$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.57 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 2,392$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.69 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Tundra Esports | 69c | 1,731$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.66 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 1,717$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.2 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 1,306$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.98 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 1,158$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.18 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 3c | 1,137$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 968.75$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 914.39$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 899.97$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 859.86$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 848$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.36 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 792.45$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.21 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…faecbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 747.39$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 655$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 581.69$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 550$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 475.03$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 441.1$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.1 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 424.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 410.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 321.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 280.75$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 244.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 176.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f3…6cafbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 159.6$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7283…f4abbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 142.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 142.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…422bbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 136.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…600dbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 132.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 132.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 114.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 112.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 111.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…b234backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 66.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…5ff1backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 65.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 45.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…3239backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…2998backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…fcbfbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.