Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb53cbdc80acabcad4c4656c0ff4dd1b0e46ac0d4f91a9a08006a887e784f3a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Natus Vincere, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 16,156$9,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,274.67 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 15,089$6,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,093.19 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 6,446$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 5,896$4,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.47 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 3,889$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.68 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 3,400$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 1,158$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.15 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 989.78$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.88 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 5c | 837.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked Tundra Esports | 62c | 801$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 718.72$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.22 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…f72fbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 675.45$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 639.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.9 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 613.65$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.96 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…3c5fbacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 517.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 490$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 322.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 288.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 286.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 224.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 217.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 179.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 162.48$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 159.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7283…f4abbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 156.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 129.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Tundra Esports | 64c | 121.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…4a81backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 84.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 64.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…5f3ebacked Tundra Esports | 57c | 57.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…64f6backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 52.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 49.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…721fbacked Tundra Esports | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports (BO3)Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.