Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22b867e712d3f70beb80e103aa42e4f23e65da264e2a43ce3b3cbbac2cc4ce10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 862.83$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 543.26$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 30c | 371.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 242.13$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 33c | 235.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 190.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 18c | 167.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 127.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 29c | 122.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 119.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 113.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…0529backed Yes | 52c | 109.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…5930backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 96.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 95.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 79.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 78.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 75.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 24c | 73.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 72.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 67.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 39c | 48.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 46.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 46.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 33c | 42.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 40.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 41c | 35.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 32.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 31.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 31.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 30.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 24.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…b574backed Yes | 72c | 19.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…59f2backed Yes | 63c | 18.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 73cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…68c4backed No | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.