South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22e833aaeb77e934a7ab009e3c2a0ab3a8076be6cf2001c53fbd617037525fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,427 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 8,372$5,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.07 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 39c | 8,118$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,926.33 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 8c | 5,688$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed No | 4c | 4,670$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 2,368$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 2,020$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.22 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 1c | 1,372$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,248$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 72c | 1,096$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.9 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 39c | 879.98$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.89 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 750$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 33c | 603.74$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 60c | 433.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.35 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 28c | 340.65$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.57 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 336.88$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.27 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 41c | 317.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.9 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 68c | 250$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 28c | 249.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed No | 16c | 246.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 73c | 239.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 33c | 220.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed No | 19c | 169.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 32c | 151.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 144.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 133.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 42c | 127$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…1363backed Yes | 28c | 103.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Yes | 40c | 100.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Yes | 33c | 88.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 26c | 75.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked No | 28c | 73.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 63c | 73.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 67.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 57.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 23c | 50.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 72c | 49.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec9e…c1eebacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 29c | 44.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2f…4520backed Yes | 72c | 41.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 40.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 28c | 40.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 39.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked No | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Yes | 33c | 32.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 60c | 31.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…26babacked Yes | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 51c | 27.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Yes | 60c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 61c | 21.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed No | 50c | 20.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…1ecabacked Yes | 53c | 19.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87c…6947backed Yes | 79c | 18.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-03-16?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-03-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.