NBA · resolved market
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fb750f33a6f9eb45c63618089e55ca429648b2bf71109f358c34b683ff5596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,405 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 66c | 620.16$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.11 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4786backed Yes | 31c | 503.24$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed Yes | 27c | 373.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 70c | 312.66$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 42c | 255.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 72c | 218.76$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…48d0backed Yes | 29c | 151.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 26c | 100.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…0d8cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Yes | 41c | 85.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 68c | 82.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 45c | 75.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 71c | 74.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…9ec5backed Yes | 41c | 67.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 71c | 66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 67c | 61.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Yes | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-0.5)Pelicans won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Derik Queen: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Raptors vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.