NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x127e120cd2472c61a589aa5b724f1124497d12d8de0b707624cb2052177be43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Raptors, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Pelicans | 51c | 1,958$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.92 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Raptors | 46c | 1,154$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.19 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Raptors | 49c | 813.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.79 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Pelicans | 54c | 495.51$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.89 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…8529backed Raptors | 55c | 365.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans | 48c | 365.2$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.84 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…cc77backed Raptors | 45c | 310.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pelicans | 56c | 277.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 263 | 53.6%141 W · 122 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Pelicans | 46c | 260$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6528…2dcebacked Raptors | 75c | 256.35$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Raptors | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 201.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Raptors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Raptors | 45c | 156.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 290 | 40.3%117 W · 173 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Pelicans | 50c | 118.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…4046backed Pelicans | 70c | 111.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pelicans | 54c | 78.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Raptors | 43c | 76.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Raptors | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39d…2c58backed Raptors | 39c | 50.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…74fcbacked Pelicans | 38c | 41.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pelicans | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Raptors | 50c | 39.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Raptors | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Raptors | 48c | 32.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 25.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-0.5)Pelicans won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Derik Queen: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Raptors vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Under won
- Saddiq Bey: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.