MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fe05de40d5d0bea38b848c964ebf4c975709171d723cb55c1aeb3681e57c6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Athletics | 38c | 5,133$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.95 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 4,234$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 43c | 2,254$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,042$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.99 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 1,030$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Athletics | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 544.04$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 420$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 377$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 302.89$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 38c | 247.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Athletics | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 181.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Athletics | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 154.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 120.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 38c | 102.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 95.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 54.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Los Angeles Angels | 77c | 49.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Athletics | 51c | 49.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 42.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Athletics | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 37.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 37.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 34.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Athletics | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Athletics | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.