MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a98f63d1b7e41a27e15b16c11db7916a704ea0d9ad32558f327a99a7417e7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 53c | 15,368$8,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,243.48 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 9,572$4,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,577.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 4,877$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 3,163$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 19c | 2,900$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 61c | 366.94$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 39c | 305$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 25c | 260.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 24c | 249.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 73c | 173$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 23c | 129.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 62c | 105.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 30c | 103.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 86.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 28c | 68.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 38c | 66.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Under | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Under | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 41c | 47.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 54c | 40.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 62c | 39.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 37.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 79c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 72c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…b2afbacked Under | 61c | 16.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.