MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e16c6b9dd7670b8b1e1a95ab235a96b53b717ec28a63b037a2bf05194a2346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 54c | 24,288$13,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,193.16 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 14,675$6,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,819.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 7,062$3,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.99 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 6,827$3,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,113.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,836$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 424.54$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.01 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Under | 55c | 183.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -8.4wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 53c | 170.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 23c | 159$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 23c | 159$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 26c | 154.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 145.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 91.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…07a6backed Under | 55c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 35c | 64.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 54c | 40.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 46c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 42c | 33.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 33.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…04efbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.